海外之声 | 中美两国在全球经济复苏中扮演的关键角色
导读
在经济全球化逐步加深其影响的21世纪，新冠疫情的爆发无疑为本就不明朗的全球经济形势增加了许多不确定性，使许多国家的经济发展偏离正轨。
事实上，全球经济能否重回正轨，很大程度上取决于中美两国的举措。中美两国对世界经济的影响是无可比拟的。2020年，中国是全球唯一实现GDP正增长的国家。而在过去的50年中，美国以全世界10%的人口数量，积攒了全球70%的财富。这两大经济体之间的博弈和美国的单边行为，不符合合作发展的理念，还会导致信任危机。因此，二者应该更多谋求合作共赢，也为世界经济早日重回正轨作出贡献。
中美两国有合作空间的主要领域有三：一带一路、气候变化和科技，特别是金融科技。一带一路重点聚焦的基础设施建设，是大多数一带一路经济带内国家亟待发展的领域，可以增加就业，提高生产力，也是刺激经济增长的重要手段。在一带一路的背景下，政策制定者应该更注重在国内采取措施，从而缓冲外源性因素导致的经济波动：更加注重公司债券市场的发展、鼓励审慎而可持续的投资、刺激区域内贸易增长，这些措施都有助于抵消大国的经济行为带来的冲击。
在气候变化领域，根据巴黎协定和联合国可持续发展目标，应该大力发展绿色金融、绿色资产，使资金流向可持续发展的领域。中国、英国和新加坡等国已经提出绿色投资的原则和计划。中国提出的2060碳中和目标，可以同时带动一带一路沿线国家都逐渐将社会责任、绿色生产和可持续发展纳入投资的重要评价标准。
由于疫情封锁的影响，线上业务逐渐成为经济发展的重要支撑，这也使得信息技术和金融科技成为两国有合作空间的第三大领域。网络风险不容小觑，线上支付所带来的一系列问题，如电子货币尚未完全纳入政府管控范围，相关制度尚待完善等，可能会导致产生对国际货币体系的信任危机。
总而言之，中美两国应该在后疫情时期开展更可持续的合作，为全球经济重回正轨作出贡献。两国之间，特别是美国，不应为了满足私欲，阻碍中国的发展，对全球经济造成危害。
作者 | Yaseen Anwar，IMI国际委员、巴基斯坦央行原行长
英文原文如下：
U.S. & China: Challenging Roles
Towards a Global Economic Recovery
Yaseen Anwar
Former Governor, State Bank of Pakistan
Member of IMI International Advisory Board
April 10, 2021
The World today continues to face global uncertainty, upheaval, and volatility on a scale not witnessed in recent history. Since the GFC of 2008, the global economy today continues in ‘uncharted’ territory that is impacting on our daily lives and will continue to do so for the forseeable future. Central Bankers setting economic policy have to consider all types of threats, such as technological developments, climate change, and business disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts. But the Pandemic of Covid-19 added a completely new dimension that policy makers had never experienced. Leading economies took draconian measures in 2020 to stimulate their respective economies and restore positive growth trajectories. What is the state of the global economy today and what steps can policy makers take to resuscitate the global economy back to normal growth rates?
Positive trajectory of the global economy and its development going forward depends on the consistency and collaboration of the two leading economies, the United States and China. Taking an adversarial approach by each will not achieve the desired results for either or the rest of the world. Co-dependency with each other may reduce the possibility of derailment of that positive trajectory. Early days have nonetheless started in Alaska on a confrontational basis that I view as a miscalculation that does not bode well for an ultimate win-win for both. Other global economies and regions will react for their own interests due to actions over the past 4 years that include: 1) The Obama administration led the ASEAN countries to put together TPP and excluded China. 2) The Trump administration did an about turn and followed by unilaterally extricating itself from the TPP, leaving ASEAN to salvage Bi-lateral agreements, and 3) China filled in the gap to create RCEP with a receptive ASEAN. Such unilateral actions are not consistent with collaboration and lead to trust deficits. These actions and their implications will be addressed later in the paper.
Given the shocks to the global economy that we are facing—and will continue to face going forward, it is incumbent on China and the U.S. as well as the central banks to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth is not stifled. We must take proactive measures to provide sorely needed capital and appropriate macro-prudential regulations to stimulate growth that will spur employment and urbanization in emerging markets. There are three areas I see shifts and opportunities for the two leading economies to collaborate. They are the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), Climate Change, and Technology/Fintech. Before we delve into these areas, let’s step back first and see where we were during the Covid-19 Pandemic in 2020.
* For 2020, China and the U.S. as the two largest economies, were expected to grow at 6% plus and 2-3% respectively. Instead, the U.S. contracted by almost 4%, the Eurozone by 7.3%, and the global economy by 4.3%. China was the only developed country to have posted a positive growth rate of 2.3%, a dramatic recovery during the 2nd half of 2020 after a negative first quarter of over 6%.
* Over the past 50 years, 70% of the global wealth had been concentrated in the U.S. with only 10% of the world’s population.
* Due to the Pandemic, the U.S. Stock Market that reached a peak of over 29,000 fell down 1/3rd to below 20,000 during the first half, wiping out Trillions of U.S. $ market Cap not seen since the Great Depression of 1930s.
* As of May 2020, 40 Million in the U.S. had lost their jobs as unemployment hit close to 20%. In addition, today we have over 560,000 who have died in the U.S., the highest of any country.
* With Manufacturing and Consumer Demand down in the U.S., the latter being the key driver of the economy, the Federal Reserve had only two instruments to inject liquidity that drives markets i.e. Monetary Policy and its Balance Sheet. While Monetary Policy had already been exhausted with near zero rates, the Fed resorted to using it’s balance sheet for Quantitative easing. Due to the underlying strength of the U.S. economy, Fiscal measures have been aggressively used to stabilize the economy, albeit these are short term actions.
* Aside from Supply Chains being disrupted, global Demand was significantly down. Example: 90% of global trade is conducted by shipping. More than 30% of capacity, or more than 3 Million containers, had been taken out of the market. Thus global economic recovery became Demand dependent.
*Most developing countries are plagued with both Current and Fiscal account Deficits and no longer have the Fiscal space to stimulate their economies. They are dependent on pick up in global Demand and support from Multilateral Institutions such as ADB, AIIB, etc.
* Due to Supply/Demand disruptions, overnight ½ of Saudi Oil was taken out of the market and the price of Oil dropped to below $20. Notwithstanding, this low price was an unexpected bonus for oil importing countries, particularly those developing countries suffering from the Pandemic with severe Current Account deficits. However intervention by the strong economies to alter Market driven prices, led to cutting Supply in order to provide a bounce back to around $50 per barrel today, much to the disadvantage of the poorer countries.
* The Trade War between the two largest economies has not dissipated but continues to be used as an economic weapon. Protectionism is only aggravating Trade as history has shown how the Smoot Hawley Tarriff in the 1930s led to a 64% reduction in world trade.
Given the shocks to the global economy that we are facing—and will continue to face going forward, the advent of the Covid Vaccines sheds a positive light at the end of the tunnel. To stimulate global growth, let me address the first of the three areas I had mentioned at the outset where we see opportunities, and that is China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), a Trillions of $ global effort to build infrastructure. It is not surprising the new Biden Administration has now proposed its own Trillions of $s infrastructure effort that is mostly focused domestically.
While last year, uncertainty prevailed, China today has become even more attractive due to its resiliency and stability in managing Covid19 with its hospitals and health officials in a coordinated way. The BRI augments this resiliency with continued focus on its huge capital resources to spur global economic growth.
The Wharton Business School alum Michael Milken created the “junk bond” market in the 1980s to enable smaller nonrated companies to access capital. Besides triggering new opportunities for investors, this stimulated overall economic growth in the U.S. through new jobs and increased consumer purchasing power. Analagous to Milken’s strategy, China’s multitrillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative for infrastructure financing gives access to capital to many emerging-market economies that have not been able to tap international bond markets. These economies have never had the opportunity to attract offshore investors who require ratings dictated by their corporate policies. The four largest recipient countries for BRI are Pakistan, with about $62 billion, and Bangladesh, Malaysia, and the Philippines, each with over $30 billion.
Infrastructure, the core of Belt and Road funding, is and has been the engine of growth for most economies. The 19th century industrial revolution transformed agrarian-based economies into technological and manufacturing-based ones. In the case of the US, this shift, accelerated again in the 1930s by President Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal and the expansion of the domestic transportation network made the country the leading global economy in the 20th century. President Biden has initiated a similar plan to rebuild America’s dilapidated infrastructure that is crumbling and needs to be brought up to 21st century standards. Singapore and China have far outpacd the United States in this sector.
The lack of quality infrastructure has hampered the economic development that many Belt and Road-related countries sorely need. For example, the shortage of power in Pakistan has impaired GDP growth rates of up to 3%. The absence of a developed transportation network for refrigerated trucks for distribution of agricultural products results in a 50% loss of perishable products.
Numerous countries have already felt the benefits of new employment opportunities and improved productivity thanks to BRI projects. In 2017, the Greek port of Piraeus handled more than 4m containers for onward distribution to Europe. Germany's Duisburg Inner Harbor has become the world's largest inland port, and more than 10,000 companies are now operating across Africa through an expanding transportation network of rail and roads.
More than $60bn of new business has been generated across a range of operations, including: increased investment and tourism into Africa; new housing in Indonesia; Power projects in Bangladesh; roads in Pakistan and Kazakhstan; and rising global and intraregional trade in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Let me highlight a few of BRI’s positive attributes/successes and why countries can benefit by embracing BRI:
A $2 Trillion Plus effort connecting more than 100 countries, 65% of the world’s population, 1/3rd of the world’s GDP, and 40% of global trade; Between 1980-2016, the world’s annual growth was 3.5%, but without China only 2.7%.
France/China jointly started construction last year on the 3200 MW Hinckley Nuclear Power Plant in the U.K.
Dubai increased its Non-Oil Bilateral trade with China to $48 Billion (3400 Chinese companies are now registered in Dubai).
As of 2020, over 100 countries and International Organizations had signed cooperation agreements with China.
Today China represents the #1 Export partner for more than 75 countries compared to only 2 countries 20 years back.
Given the backdrop of what I have outlined in terms of global economic uncertainty with BRI providing the necessary resources to maintain positive growth trajectories, Policy makers still need to initiate measures to cushion fragile economies from exogenous shocks and learn from the past. The 2008 GFC shook our Trust in the International Monetary System as major Financial Institutions collapsed and the world witnessed a deep recession in the U.S. and an existential Debt crisis in Europe with negative interest rates.
The development of the Corporate Debt Market in emerging markets should be a priority given that the process of intermediation in some countries is focused through commercial Banks. The GFC highlighted the role private debt markets can play in ensuring the flow of credit to the real sector. One of the reasons the recovery in the U.S. was better than in the EU was due to the better developed private bond markets.
The world is no longer predictable. The future of Public & Private sector asset management will depend on prudent and sustainable investment in uncertain times. BRI and its access to Capital will provide opportunities for suitable long term investors. The uncertainty and disruption of supply chains amid the Pandemic and trade wars has lead to significant development towards regional integration and increased intra-regional trade that will restore growth rates for those regional economies.
Protectionism, trade wars targeting China’s supply chains, and the weaponizing of economic instruments will precipitate diversification of supply chains and retain focus on lowering unit production costs. Intra-regional trade will offset exogenous shocks precipitated by the super powers.
Aside from BRI, the most notable development last year was when ASEAN leaders launched the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) that will add further impetus to the region. This 15 member ASEAN initiative has enormous potential to lift each of their own economies and at the same time establish a credible framework for higher growth in the region. It offers opportunities in the form of a huge market of almost $25 Trillion and a population of over 2.3 Billion. The combined GDP is greater than that of the EU and NAFTA. Intra-Regional trade within ASEAN is 24% as compared with 65% for EU and NAFTA. This needs correction and will be corrected now with RCEP. The benefits of Intra-regional trade going forward should also be embraced by the Central Asian Republics, the least integrated region in the world.
The Second area of increasing importance where the U.S. and China must work together is tied to Climate change that is now an existential challenge of our time and a key component of BRI’s emphasis and priority. Its importance has become even more elevated with Covid-19 as it has sensitized the world to how vulnerable we are to the forces of nature. An important step undertaken was evident on the development, issuance, and usage of the Belt & Road Inter-Bank Regular Cooperation Bonds (BRBR), proceeds of which are applied by the issuer to finance eligible Green Assets along the ‘Belt & Road’ countries and regions. The assets being financed comprise Eligible Green Asset Categories and qualify under the Center for International Research (CICERO) established by the U.N.
In fact in April 2019, ICBC Singapore launched a $2.2 Billion Multicurrency Green Bond under the BRBR mechanism, the purpose of which is to develop the role of debt Capital Markets to better allocate resources to support BRI Infrastructure projects.
This also fits in well with Green Investment Principles (GIP) launched in 2018 by the UK and China Governments as a finance first initiative to Green the Belt & Road. The infrastructure investment under BRI will have a significant impact on the implementation of the Paris Agreement and UN sustainable goals. The aim of GIP is to ensure that environmental friendliness, climate resilience, and social inclusiveness are built into new investment projects in BRI. To highlight how important this priority is being taken, the following are noteworthy:
1. One positive from the Pandemic is that Carbon emissions for most of 2020 were down by 17%.
2. Blackrock, the largest Asset Manager, announced recently it has made sustainable investing a cornerstone of its long term objectives and currently has over $90 Billion in its ETFs that comply with ESG standards.
3. RecentlyTemasek took a 3.9% stake in Blackrock in support of sustainable investing. The Monetary Authority of Singapore(MAS) has established an office to promote ESG standards in its banking sector and is taking a leading role.
4. HSBC recently announced a JV to form the world’s largest natural capital manager targeting $3 Billion. The JV will be the first large-scale venture to mainstream natural capital as an Asset Class.
5. In September 2020, G.E. announced it was exiting the Coal Fired power plant business.
As we can see, Climate control has sensitized the world where financial risks need to be carefully assessed in the financial sector. Accounting firms can play an important role in assessing and providing expertise to Financial Institutions on how to adopt sound methodologies and tools to identify environmental risks to their loan portfolios and review their Audit reports accordingly. Most Central Banks, led by Singapore and China, are beginning to review and adopt such Risk Mitigant measures with an emphasis on Disclosure.IFC/World Bank are already working closely with the State Bank of Pakistan to develop such Risk Mitigant standards. The Fed has recently announced it is considering establishing a new department to focus on Climate Risk.
An important note I should add is that as China announced carbon neutrality by 2060, it translates into trillions of dollars of new investment opportunities for green finance in both China and along the Belt and Road, as China’s pledge will encourage other developing countries to come up with more ambitious goals and NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions-Heart of Paris Agreement). For example, a recent study by GIP for one province in China found that new green investments between now and 2030 are estimated to exceed 13 trillion RMB (app. $2 trillion) and the magnitude for all over China will amount to hundreds of $ trillions. Against this background and going forward, GIP will be reaching out and provide better support to other developing countries along the Belt and Road in terms of green and sustainable development, by establishing regional offices/chapters. It is interesting to note President Biden has made similar statements recently in support of Climate Risk and how new jobs can be created.
Notwithstanding Covid-19, Asia is projected to have the strongest growth in Wealth Management overthe next 5 years. Much of this wealth will be channeled to ESG investments. A UBS study estimates that close to 40% of family offices plan to allocate most of their portfolios sustainably in five years’ time. Studies indicate an estimated $15 Trillion is expected to change hands to the next generation by 2030, another opportunity for accounting firms and Asset Managers to explore.
Aside from BRI and Climate Change, the third area that will change the landscape will be Technology. Due to lockdowns, the use of online orders for shopping or food has been the backbone of survival for those who have had access to technology. Adapting to digital banking and operating from home has elevated corporate executives on how to manage during severe business interruptions.
Various studies have shown that 1.7 Billion people globally are excluded from accessing basic financial services i.e. Payments. (6.5% are excluded in the U.S.) Studies by the ADB have shown 85% of the adult population in South Asia does not have access to basic financial services. Small businesses have been hit hard and Fintech companies will fill up this space more and more. Alibaba’s Ant Financial, Telenor, and other companies have invested heavily in digital payments and E-Commerce.
Digital technologies are influencing corporate finance officers for improving Cash Management for their offices worldwide. Getting a better handle on Cash on hand and the returns are essential for avoiding Government handouts. Finance professionals also believe cybersecurity risks are among the most challenging risks to manage today. Technological innovation in the payments space is good for consumers, and central banks must keep pace with the risk landscape without compromising financial inclusion. To manage it, they must devote attention first to their domestic markets and establish appropriate regulations and national payments councils that many emerging markets don’t have.
The challenges in regulating cryptocurrency and other similar payments need to be carefully assessed before we are forced to confront unintended consequences. Cash in circulation has been regulated in a controlled environment by central banks. Digital currencies, meanwhile, may not necessarily be completely under the control of central banks. National payments councils that include all stakeholders aside from the central banks need to be all-encompassing in assessing the inherent risks with clear regulations before they launch cryptocurrencies and potentially weaken our trust in the international monetary system again.
As we can see, the Covid-19 Pandemic has forced us to focus on Capital Resources, Climate Risk, and Technology/Fintech. It behooves the two leading economies to join forces in managing the huge potential to remake the world towards sustainability, cleaner and greener, creating new value and new jobs and in turn reducing income inequality. China is already a recognized force in the global economy that is critical for global development as evidenced by recent facts:
China has opened its Domestic Markets for foreign investors as majority stakeholders. UBS has become the 1st Brokerage and Alliance in Insurance. S&P and Moody’s have already been permitted to enter.
At $18 Trillion, it is the 2nd largest domestic Bond market. However global investors comprise only 3.6% market share, evidencing huge potential. The government Bond market outperformed its global peers by a wide margin in the first quarter of 2021.
FTSE Russel announced on March 29, 2021 that it will add Chinese sovereign bonds into its global bond index with a weighting of 5.25% beginning in October 2021.
With a huge Equity market, foreign ownership is only 4.5%, versus 11% in Emerging Market economies, and 17% in the U.S. Again, the potential for growth is substantial.
China’s $50 Trillion Banking industry is re-setting its prudent banking practices, a good omen for borrowers and for expansion globally.
Bi-lateral agreements are vital and China created a Consensus as a success story with RCEP, a key intra-regional alliance.
The above only highlights the importance of partnering with China in a collaborative approach that will reap benefits for both of the leading economies. A confrontational approach may not benefit either and in turn destabilize smaller economies in the process. Both countries have recognized that infrastructure is critical for economic development and as such, the U.S. should focus on its own development plan rather that block or stall China’s plan.
In conclusion, in a world of uncertainty and the impact of global developments, including Covid-19, economic policy makers will face many challenging and unprecedented headwinds. I have highlighted three core areas or themes; BRI, Climate change, and Fintech with Sustainable finance as the underlying feature. These themes will bring value to the financial industry, economy, and the world as a whole. The United States and China must ensure policy makers consider all these issues and work in a collective and coordinated manner towards global growth in a Multi-Polar world that uniformly benefits the entire planet.
编辑 查王皓天
编译 李璿
责编 李锦璇、蒋旭
监制 朱霜霜
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